Santarritense U20 1–4 Coimbra U20: Result & Stats

Santarritense U20

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Coimbra U20

6/8/2024

Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Coronel Erasmo Cabral

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Santarritense U2011%

×Draw13%

Coimbra U2076%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santarritense U20Expected goals in this matchCoimbra U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

3.23

Santarritense U20

1.19

Coimbra U20

3.23

Coimbra U20 creates 171% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 21 away

0.86

creates per match

1.33

5.14

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Santarritense U20

0.86

Coimbra U20

1.33

allows per match

Santarritense U20

5.14

Coimbra U20

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santarritense U20+0.00on par

Coimbra U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santarritense U20 ↓

Coimbra U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–27%

0–37%

0–46%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–47%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Santarritense U20 or draw

24%

Santarritense U20 or Coimbra U20

87%

Draw or Coimbra U20

89%

Winning margin

Santarritense U20 wins by 2+

4%

Coimbra U20 wins by 2+

57%

Team goals

Santarritense U20 1+ goals

70%

Santarritense U20 2+ goals

33%

Santarritense U20 3+ goals

12%

Coimbra U20 1+ goals

96%

Coimbra U20 2+ goals

82%

Coimbra U20 3+ goals

61%

Draw no bet

Santarritense U20 (draw refunded)

12%

Coimbra U20 (draw refunded)

88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santarritense U20 at home — creates 0.86, concedes 5.14 · 7 matches

Coimbra U20 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santarritense U20 attack 0.86 + Coimbra U20 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.19

Coimbra U20 attack 1.33 + Santarritense U20 defence 5.14 → ÷2 → 3.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Santarritense U20 scores more

11%

level

13%

Coimbra U20 scores more

76%

Coimbra U20 at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Coimbra U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff