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Santarritense U20 vs Atlético Mineiro U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

Santarritense U20
Santarritense U20
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Mineiro U20
Atlético Mineiro U20
Unknown 82', 68', 63', 56', 26'
7/21/2024Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 11Estádio Coronel Erasmo Cabral

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Santarritense U206%
×Draw9%
Atlético Mineiro U2085%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santarritense U20
0.99
Atlético Mineiro U20
3.82

Atlético Mineiro U20 creates 286% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 24 away

creates per match

Santarritense U20
0.86
Atlético Mineiro U20
2.50

allows per match

Santarritense U20
5.14
Atlético Mineiro U20
1.13

finishing

Santarritense U20+0.00on par
Atlético Mineiro U20+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santarritense U20 ↓

Atlético Mineiro U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–27%
0–38%
0–48%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–23%
2–34%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (8%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Santarritense U20 or draw
15%
Santarritense U20 or Atlético Mineiro U20
91%
Draw or Atlético Mineiro U20
94%

Winning margin

Santarritense U20 wins by 2+
2%
Atlético Mineiro U20 wins by 2+
69%

Team goals

Santarritense U20 1+ goals
63%
Santarritense U20 2+ goals
26%
Santarritense U20 3+ goals
8%
Atlético Mineiro U20 1+ goals
98%
Atlético Mineiro U20 2+ goals
88%
Atlético Mineiro U20 3+ goals
71%

Draw no bet

Santarritense U20 (draw refunded)
6%
Atlético Mineiro U20 (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santarritense U20 at home — creates 0.86, concedes 5.14 · 7 matches

Atlético Mineiro U20 away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.13 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santarritense U20 attack 0.86 + Atlético Mineiro U20 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.99

Atlético Mineiro U20 attack 2.50 + Santarritense U20 defence 5.14 → ÷2 → 3.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Santarritense U20 scores more
6%
level
9%
Atlético Mineiro U20 scores more
85%

Atlético Mineiro U20 at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Atlético Mineiro U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
56'
63'
68'
82'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro U20: Santarritense U20 0–5 Atlético Mineiro U20

Atlético Mineiro U20 beat Santarritense U20 5-0 in Mineiro U20 on July 21, 2024.

Goals: ? (26', 56', 63', 68', 82').

The match was played at Estádio Coronel Erasmo Cabral in Santa Rita do Sapucaí, Minas Gerais.