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Santanyí vs Sóller — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Santanyí
Santanyí
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sóller
Sóller
10/14/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 6Estadio Municipal de Santanyí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Santanyí58%
×Draw23%
Sóller19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santanyí
1.76
Sóller
0.90

Santanyí creates 96% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 81 away

creates per match

Santanyí
1.48
Sóller
0.88

allows per match

Santanyí
0.92
Sóller
2.05

finishing

Santanyí+0.00on par
Sóller+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santanyí ↓

Sóller →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Santanyí or draw
81%
Santanyí or Sóller
77%
Draw or Sóller
42%

Winning margin

Santanyí wins by 2+
33%
Sóller wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Santanyí 1+ goals
83%
Santanyí 2+ goals
52%
Santanyí 3+ goals
26%
Sóller 1+ goals
59%
Sóller 2+ goals
23%
Sóller 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Santanyí (draw refunded)
75%
Sóller (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santanyí at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.92 · 112 matches

Sóller away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.05 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santanyí attack 1.48 + Sóller defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.76

Sóller attack 0.88 + Santanyí defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Santanyí scores more
58%
level
23%
Sóller scores more
19%

Santanyí at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Santanyí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santanyí vs Sóller

Santanyí beat Sóller 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Santanyí in Mallorca.