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Santanyí vs Rotlet Molinar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Santanyí
Santanyí
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rotlet Molinar
Rotlet Molinar
10/23/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 10Estadio Municipal de Santanyí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Santanyí56%
×Draw25%
Rotlet Molinar19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santanyí
1.62
Rotlet Molinar
0.84

Santanyí creates 93% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 37 away

creates per match

Santanyí
1.48
Rotlet Molinar
0.76

allows per match

Santanyí
0.92
Rotlet Molinar
1.76

finishing

Santanyí+0.00on par
Rotlet Molinar+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santanyí ↓

Rotlet Molinar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Santanyí or draw
81%
Santanyí or Rotlet Molinar
75%
Draw or Rotlet Molinar
44%

Winning margin

Santanyí wins by 2+
30%
Rotlet Molinar wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Santanyí 1+ goals
80%
Santanyí 2+ goals
48%
Santanyí 3+ goals
22%
Rotlet Molinar 1+ goals
57%
Rotlet Molinar 2+ goals
21%
Rotlet Molinar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Santanyí (draw refunded)
74%
Rotlet Molinar (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santanyí at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.92 · 112 matches

Rotlet Molinar away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.76 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santanyí attack 1.48 + Rotlet Molinar defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.62

Rotlet Molinar attack 0.76 + Santanyí defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Santanyí scores more
56%
level
25%
Rotlet Molinar scores more
19%

Santanyí at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Santanyí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Santanyí 1–0 Rotlet Molinar

Santanyí beat Rotlet Molinar 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Santanyí in Mallorca.