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Santanyí vs Penya Independent — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Santanyí
Santanyí
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Penya Independent
Penya Independent
5/11/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 34Estadio Municipal de Santanyí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Santanyí40%
×Draw29%
Penya Independent31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santanyí
1.20
Penya Independent
1.01

Santanyí creates 19% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 32 away

creates per match

Santanyí
1.48
Penya Independent
1.09

allows per match

Santanyí
0.92
Penya Independent
0.91

finishing

Santanyí+0.00on par
Penya Independent+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santanyí ↓

Penya Independent →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Santanyí or draw
69%
Santanyí or Penya Independent
71%
Draw or Penya Independent
60%

Winning margin

Santanyí wins by 2+
17%
Penya Independent wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Santanyí 1+ goals
70%
Santanyí 2+ goals
34%
Santanyí 3+ goals
12%
Penya Independent 1+ goals
64%
Penya Independent 2+ goals
27%
Penya Independent 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Santanyí (draw refunded)
57%
Penya Independent (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santanyí at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.92 · 112 matches

Penya Independent away — creates 1.09, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santanyí attack 1.48 + Penya Independent defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.20

Penya Independent attack 1.09 + Santanyí defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Santanyí scores more
40%
level
29%
Penya Independent scores more
31%

Santanyí at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Santanyí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santanyí vs Penya Independent

Santanyí beat Penya Independent 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Santanyí in Mallorca.