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Santanyí vs PE Sant Jordi — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Santanyí
Santanyí
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
PE Sant Jordi
PE Sant Jordi
3/23/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 30Estadio Municipal de Santanyí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Santanyí48%
×Draw26%
PE Sant Jordi26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santanyí
1.52
PE Sant Jordi
1.05

Santanyí creates 45% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 65 away

creates per match

Santanyí
1.48
PE Sant Jordi
1.18

allows per match

Santanyí
0.92
PE Sant Jordi
1.55

finishing

Santanyí+0.00on par
PE Sant Jordi+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santanyí ↓

PE Sant Jordi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Santanyí or draw
74%
Santanyí or PE Sant Jordi
74%
Draw or PE Sant Jordi
52%

Winning margin

Santanyí wins by 2+
24%
PE Sant Jordi wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Santanyí 1+ goals
78%
Santanyí 2+ goals
45%
Santanyí 3+ goals
20%
PE Sant Jordi 1+ goals
65%
PE Sant Jordi 2+ goals
28%
PE Sant Jordi 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Santanyí (draw refunded)
65%
PE Sant Jordi (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santanyí at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.92 · 112 matches

PE Sant Jordi away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.55 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santanyí attack 1.48 + PE Sant Jordi defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

PE Sant Jordi attack 1.18 + Santanyí defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Santanyí scores more
48%
level
26%
PE Sant Jordi scores more
26%

Santanyí at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Santanyí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Santanyí 2–0 PE Sant Jordi

Santanyí beat PE Sant Jordi 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on March 23, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Santanyí in Mallorca.