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Santanyí vs Felanitx — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Santanyí
Santanyí
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Felanitx
Felanitx
1/10/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 17Estadio Municipal de Santanyí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Santanyí51%
×Draw25%
Felanitx24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santanyí
1.60
Felanitx
1.00

Santanyí creates 60% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 99 away

creates per match

Santanyí
1.48
Felanitx
1.07

allows per match

Santanyí
0.92
Felanitx
1.72

finishing

Santanyí+0.00on par
Felanitx+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santanyí ↓

Felanitx →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Santanyí or draw
76%
Santanyí or Felanitx
75%
Draw or Felanitx
49%

Winning margin

Santanyí wins by 2+
27%
Felanitx wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Santanyí 1+ goals
80%
Santanyí 2+ goals
47%
Santanyí 3+ goals
22%
Felanitx 1+ goals
63%
Felanitx 2+ goals
26%
Felanitx 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Santanyí (draw refunded)
68%
Felanitx (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santanyí at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.92 · 112 matches

Felanitx away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.72 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santanyí attack 1.48 + Felanitx defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.60

Felanitx attack 1.07 + Santanyí defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Santanyí scores more
51%
level
25%
Felanitx scores more
24%

Santanyí at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Santanyí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Santanyí 2–1 Felanitx

Santanyí beat Felanitx 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on January 10, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Santanyí in Santañy (Santanyí) (Mallorca).