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Santanyí vs Collerense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Santanyí
Santanyí
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Collerense
Collerense
1/25/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 19Estadio Municipal de Santanyí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Santanyí54%
×Draw24%
Collerense22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santanyí
1.68
Collerense
0.96

Santanyí creates 75% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 113 away

creates per match

Santanyí
1.48
Collerense
1.00

allows per match

Santanyí
0.92
Collerense
1.88

finishing

Santanyí+0.00on par
Collerense+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santanyí ↓

Collerense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Santanyí or draw
78%
Santanyí or Collerense
76%
Draw or Collerense
46%

Winning margin

Santanyí wins by 2+
30%
Collerense wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Santanyí 1+ goals
81%
Santanyí 2+ goals
50%
Santanyí 3+ goals
24%
Collerense 1+ goals
62%
Collerense 2+ goals
25%
Collerense 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Santanyí (draw refunded)
72%
Collerense (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santanyí at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.92 · 112 matches

Collerense away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santanyí attack 1.48 + Collerense defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.68

Collerense attack 1.00 + Santanyí defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Santanyí scores more
54%
level
24%
Collerense scores more
22%

Santanyí at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Santanyí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santanyí vs Collerense

Santanyí and Collerense drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on January 25, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Santanyí in Mallorca.