Santanyí 1–0 Alcúdia: Result & Stats

Santanyí

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Alcúdia

3/9/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 24Estadio Municipal de Santanyí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Santanyí54%

×Draw24%

Alcúdia22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SantanyíExpected goals in this matchAlcúdia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.03

Santanyí

1.75

Alcúdia

1.03

Santanyí creates 70% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 79 away

1.48

creates per match

1.15

0.92

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Santanyí

1.48

Alcúdia

1.15

allows per match

Santanyí

0.92

Alcúdia

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santanyí+0.00on par

Alcúdia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santanyí ↓

Alcúdia →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Santanyí or draw

78%

Santanyí or Alcúdia

76%

Draw or Alcúdia

46%

Winning margin

Santanyí wins by 2+

30%

Alcúdia wins by 2+

Team goals

Santanyí 1+ goals

83%

Santanyí 2+ goals

52%

Santanyí 3+ goals

25%

Alcúdia 1+ goals

64%

Alcúdia 2+ goals

28%

Alcúdia 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Santanyí (draw refunded)

71%

Alcúdia (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Santanyí at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.92 · 112 matches

Alcúdia away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.03 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Santanyí attack 1.48 + Alcúdia defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.75

Alcúdia attack 1.15 + Santanyí defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Santanyí scores more

54%

level

24%

Alcúdia scores more

22%

Santanyí at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Santanyí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff