Santamarina 1–1 Estudiantes S.l.: Result & Stats

Santamarina

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Estudiantes S.l.

L. Dezi 22'

P. Soda 27'

9/14/2025

Torneo Federal A · Lower Table Round - 9Estadio Municipal Gral. San Martin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Santamarina39%

×Draw35%

Estudiantes S.l.26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SantamarinaExpected goals in this matchEstudiantes S.l.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

0.69

Santamarina

0.93

Estudiantes S.l.

0.69

Santamarina creates 35% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 17 away

0.80

creates per match

0.65

0.72

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Santamarina

0.80

Estudiantes S.l.

0.65

allows per match

Santamarina

0.72

Estudiantes S.l.

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santamarina+0.00on par

Estudiantes S.l.+0.00on par

Total goals

Under78
Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santamarina ↓

Estudiantes S.l. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–020%

0–114%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

48%52%2.5

22%78%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Santamarina or draw

74%

Santamarina or Estudiantes S.l.

65%

Draw or Estudiantes S.l.

61%

Winning margin

Santamarina wins by 2+

14%

Estudiantes S.l. wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Santamarina 1+ goals

61%

Santamarina 2+ goals

24%

Santamarina 3+ goals

7%

Estudiantes S.l. 1+ goals

50%

Estudiantes S.l. 2+ goals

15%

Estudiantes S.l. 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Santamarina (draw refunded)

60%

Estudiantes S.l. (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santamarina at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.72 · 25 matches

Estudiantes S.l. away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santamarina attack 0.80 + Estudiantes S.l. defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.93

Estudiantes S.l. attack 0.65 + Santamarina defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Santamarina scores more

39%

level

35%

Estudiantes S.l. scores more

26%

Santamarina at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Santamarina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

L. Dezi

27'

P. Soda

71'

N. Igartua

87'

Santamarina

Estudiantes

1

4

2

6

3

8

5

10

11

7

9

⚽

1

4

2

6

3

8

5

10

11

7

⚽

Dezi

9

Comachi

Manager: J. Izquierdo

Santamarina substitutes

12Vigo13Lucero14Fuentes15Quinteros16Castro17Navarro18Valenzuela19D'Angelo20Fuentes

Manager: H. Ortiz

Estudiantes S.l. substitutes

12Collado13Caro14Astudillo15Bustamante16Valenzuela17Cordoba18Cabrera19Medina20Gonzalez