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Santacruzense vs Sao Carlos — Paulista Série B 2026

Santacruzense
Santacruzense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sao Carlos
Sao Carlos
E. da Conceicao Honorato 69'
K. Silva 90+1'
6/20/2026Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Santacruzense59%
×Draw24%
Sao Carlos17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santacruzense
1.72
Sao Carlos
0.80

Santacruzense creates 115% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 18 away

creates per match

Santacruzense
2.00
Sao Carlos
0.61

allows per match

Santacruzense
1.00
Sao Carlos
1.44

finishing

Santacruzense+0.00on par
Sao Carlos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 54Over: 4654%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 55Yes: 4555%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santacruzense ↓

Sao Carlos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Santacruzense or draw
83%
Santacruzense or Sao Carlos
76%
Draw or Sao Carlos
41%

Winning margin

Santacruzense wins by 2+
33%
Sao Carlos wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Santacruzense 1+ goals
82%
Santacruzense 2+ goals
51%
Santacruzense 3+ goals
25%
Sao Carlos 1+ goals
55%
Sao Carlos 2+ goals
19%
Sao Carlos 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Santacruzense (draw refunded)
78%
Sao Carlos (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santacruzense at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Sao Carlos away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santacruzense attack 2.00 + Sao Carlos defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.72

Sao Carlos attack 0.61 + Santacruzense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Santacruzense scores more
59%
level
24%
Sao Carlos scores more
17%

Santacruzense at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Santacruzense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

69'
E. da Conceicao Honorato
90+1'
K. Silva

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista Série B: Santacruzense 1–1 Sao Carlos

Santacruzense and Sao Carlos drew 1-1 in Paulista Série B on June 20, 2026.

Goals: E. da Conceicao Honorato (69'), K. Silva (90+1').