Santacruzense 4–1 Olímpia: Result & Stats

Santacruzense

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Olímpia

Unknown 85', 73', 71'

Vinicius Tavares 29'

K. Silva 57'

6/8/2025

Paulista Série B · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Municipal Leônidas Camarinha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Santacruzense65%

×Draw20%

Olímpia15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SantacruzenseExpected goals in this matchOlímpia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

0.95

Santacruzense

2.17

Olímpia

0.95

Santacruzense creates 128% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

2.00

creates per match

0.89

1.00

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Santacruzense

2.00

Olímpia

0.89

allows per match

Santacruzense

1.00

Olímpia

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santacruzense+0.00on par

Olímpia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santacruzense ↓

Olímpia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Santacruzense or draw

85%

Santacruzense or Olímpia

80%

Draw or Olímpia

35%

Winning margin

Santacruzense wins by 2+

41%

Olímpia wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Santacruzense 1+ goals

89%

Santacruzense 2+ goals

64%

Santacruzense 3+ goals

36%

Olímpia 1+ goals

61%

Olímpia 2+ goals

25%

Olímpia 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Santacruzense (draw refunded)

81%

Olímpia (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santacruzense at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Olímpia away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santacruzense attack 2.00 + Olímpia defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Olímpia attack 0.89 + Santacruzense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Santacruzense scores more

65%

level

20%

Olímpia scores more

15%

Santacruzense at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Santacruzense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

Vinicius Tavares

57'

K. Silva

71'

73'

79'

85'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff