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Santa Úrsula vs Villa Santa Brígida — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Santa Úrsula
Santa Úrsula
CANC
00:00
Villa Santa Brígida
Villa Santa Brígida
3/14/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 29Estadio Argelio Tabares

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Santa Úrsula50%
×Draw27%
Villa Santa Brígida23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Úrsula
1.42
Villa Santa Brígida
0.88

Santa Úrsula creates 61% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 109 away

creates per match

Santa Úrsula
1.33
Villa Santa Brígida
0.96

allows per match

Santa Úrsula
0.80
Villa Santa Brígida
1.51

finishing

Santa Úrsula+0.00on par
Villa Santa Brígida+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Úrsula ↓

Villa Santa Brígida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Santa Úrsula or draw
77%
Santa Úrsula or Villa Santa Brígida
73%
Draw or Villa Santa Brígida
50%

Winning margin

Santa Úrsula wins by 2+
24%
Villa Santa Brígida wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Santa Úrsula 1+ goals
76%
Santa Úrsula 2+ goals
41%
Santa Úrsula 3+ goals
17%
Villa Santa Brígida 1+ goals
59%
Villa Santa Brígida 2+ goals
22%
Villa Santa Brígida 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Santa Úrsula (draw refunded)
68%
Villa Santa Brígida (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Úrsula at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.80 · 92 matches

Villa Santa Brígida away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.51 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Úrsula attack 1.33 + Villa Santa Brígida defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.42

Villa Santa Brígida attack 0.96 + Santa Úrsula defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Santa Úrsula scores more
50%
level
27%
Villa Santa Brígida scores more
23%

Santa Úrsula at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Santa Úrsula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Santa Úrsula host Villa Santa Brígida

March 14, 2020: Santa Úrsula take on Villa Santa Brígida in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Santa Úrsula host Villa Santa Brígida at Estadio Argelio Tabares.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.