Santa Úrsula 1–0 Mensajero: Result & Stats

Santa Úrsula

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mensajero

12/2/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 5Estadio Argelio Tabares

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Santa Úrsula46%

×Draw28%

Mensajero26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa ÚrsulaExpected goals in this matchMensajero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.94

Santa Úrsula

1.35

Mensajero

0.94

Santa Úrsula creates 44% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 76 away

1.33

creates per match

1.08

0.80

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Santa Úrsula

1.33

Mensajero

1.08

allows per match

Santa Úrsula

0.80

Mensajero

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Úrsula+0.00on par

Mensajero+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Úrsula ↓

Mensajero →

0–010%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Santa Úrsula or draw

74%

Santa Úrsula or Mensajero

72%

Draw or Mensajero

54%

Winning margin

Santa Úrsula wins by 2+

22%

Mensajero wins by 2+

Team goals

Santa Úrsula 1+ goals

74%

Santa Úrsula 2+ goals

39%

Santa Úrsula 3+ goals

15%

Mensajero 1+ goals

61%

Mensajero 2+ goals

24%

Mensajero 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Santa Úrsula (draw refunded)

64%

Mensajero (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Santa Úrsula at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.80 · 92 matches

Mensajero away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.36 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Santa Úrsula attack 1.33 + Mensajero defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

Mensajero attack 1.08 + Santa Úrsula defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Santa Úrsula scores more

46%

level

28%

Mensajero scores more

26%

Santa Úrsula at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Santa Úrsula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff