Mensajero 1–3 Santa Úrsula: Result & Stats

Mensajero

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Santa Úrsula

3/19/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 25Estadio Silvestre Carrillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Mensajero57%

×Draw23%

Santa Úrsula20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MensajeroExpected goals in this matchSanta Úrsula

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.97

Mensajero

1.81

Santa Úrsula

0.97

Mensajero creates 87% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 92 away

2.10

creates per match

0.90

1.03

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Mensajero

2.10

Santa Úrsula

0.90

allows per match

Mensajero

1.03

Santa Úrsula

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mensajero+0.00on par

Santa Úrsula+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mensajero ↓

Santa Úrsula →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Mensajero or draw

80%

Mensajero or Santa Úrsula

77%

Draw or Santa Úrsula

43%

Winning margin

Mensajero wins by 2+

33%

Santa Úrsula wins by 2+

Team goals

Mensajero 1+ goals

84%

Mensajero 2+ goals

54%

Mensajero 3+ goals

27%

Santa Úrsula 1+ goals

62%

Santa Úrsula 2+ goals

25%

Santa Úrsula 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Mensajero (draw refunded)

74%

Santa Úrsula (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mensajero at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.03 · 77 matches

Santa Úrsula away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.52 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mensajero attack 2.10 + Santa Úrsula defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.81

Santa Úrsula attack 0.90 + Mensajero defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Mensajero scores more

57%

level

23%

Santa Úrsula scores more

20%

Mensajero at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Mensajero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Mensajero 1–3 Santa Úrsula

Santa Úrsula beat Mensajero 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on March 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Silvestre Carrillo in La Palma.

Mensajero vs Santa Úrsula — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Mensajero 1–3 Santa Úrsula