Santa Úrsula 2–1 Atlético Victoria: Result & Stats

Santa Úrsula

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Atlético Victoria

11/4/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 9Estadio Argelio Tabares

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Santa Úrsula58%

×Draw24%

Atlético Victoria17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa ÚrsulaExpected goals in this matchAtlético Victoria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.77

Santa Úrsula

1.65

Atlético Victoria

0.77

Santa Úrsula creates 114% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 31 away

1.33

creates per match

0.74

0.80

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Santa Úrsula

1.33

Atlético Victoria

0.74

allows per match

Santa Úrsula

0.80

Atlético Victoria

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Úrsula+0.00on par

Atlético Victoria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Úrsula ↓

Atlético Victoria →

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Santa Úrsula or draw

83%

Santa Úrsula or Atlético Victoria

76%

Draw or Atlético Victoria

42%

Winning margin

Santa Úrsula wins by 2+

32%

Atlético Victoria wins by 2+

Team goals

Santa Úrsula 1+ goals

81%

Santa Úrsula 2+ goals

49%

Santa Úrsula 3+ goals

23%

Atlético Victoria 1+ goals

54%

Atlético Victoria 2+ goals

18%

Atlético Victoria 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Santa Úrsula (draw refunded)

77%

Atlético Victoria (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Santa Úrsula at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.80 · 92 matches

Atlético Victoria away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.97 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Santa Úrsula attack 1.33 + Atlético Victoria defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.65

Atlético Victoria attack 0.74 + Santa Úrsula defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Santa Úrsula scores more

58%

level

24%

Atlético Victoria scores more

17%

Santa Úrsula at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Santa Úrsula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santa Úrsula vs Atlético Victoria

Santa Úrsula beat Atlético Victoria 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Argelio Tabares in Santa Úrsula.

Santa Úrsula vs Atlético Victoria — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Santa Úrsula vs Atlético Victoria