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Santa Teresa vs Sporting Huelva W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Santa Teresa
Santa Teresa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sporting Huelva W
Sporting Huelva W
1/7/2018Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Primera Division Women - Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Santa Teresa35%
×Draw27%
Sporting Huelva W38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Teresa
1.21
Sporting Huelva W
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 89 away

creates per match

Santa Teresa
0.50
Sporting Huelva W
0.73

allows per match

Santa Teresa
1.83
Sporting Huelva W
1.91

finishing

Santa Teresa+0.00on par
Sporting Huelva W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Teresa ↓

Sporting Huelva W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Santa Teresa or draw
62%
Santa Teresa or Sporting Huelva W
73%
Draw or Sporting Huelva W
65%

Winning margin

Santa Teresa wins by 2+
15%
Sporting Huelva W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Santa Teresa 1+ goals
70%
Santa Teresa 2+ goals
34%
Santa Teresa 3+ goals
12%
Sporting Huelva W 1+ goals
72%
Sporting Huelva W 2+ goals
37%
Sporting Huelva W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Santa Teresa (draw refunded)
48%
Sporting Huelva W (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Teresa at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

Sporting Huelva W away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.91 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Teresa attack 0.50 + Sporting Huelva W defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sporting Huelva W attack 0.73 + Santa Teresa defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Santa Teresa scores more
35%
level
27%
Sporting Huelva W scores more
38%

Sporting Huelva W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sporting Huelva W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División Femenina: Santa Teresa 1–1 Sporting Huelva W

Santa Teresa and Sporting Huelva W drew 1-1 in Primera División Femenina on January 7, 2018.