Santa Teresa 1–5 Real Madrid W: Result & Stats

Santa Teresa

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 4

Real Madrid W

6/20/2021

Primera División Femenina · Round 33Ciudad Deportiva del Viejo Vivero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Santa Teresa12%

×Draw19%

Real Madrid W69%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa TeresaExpected goals in this matchReal Madrid W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.71

2.06

Santa Teresa

0.71

Real Madrid W

2.06

Real Madrid W creates 190% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 92 away

0.50

creates per match

2.29

1.83

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Santa Teresa

0.50

Real Madrid W

2.29

allows per match

Santa Teresa

1.83

Real Madrid W

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Teresa+0.00on par

Real Madrid W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Teresa ↓

Real Madrid W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–113%

0–213%

0–39%

0–45%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Santa Teresa or draw

31%

Santa Teresa or Real Madrid W

81%

Draw or Real Madrid W

88%

Winning margin

Santa Teresa wins by 2+

3%

Real Madrid W wins by 2+

44%

Team goals

Santa Teresa 1+ goals

51%

Santa Teresa 2+ goals

16%

Santa Teresa 3+ goals

4%

Real Madrid W 1+ goals

87%

Real Madrid W 2+ goals

61%

Real Madrid W 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Santa Teresa (draw refunded)

15%

Real Madrid W (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Teresa at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

Real Madrid W away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.92 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Teresa attack 0.50 + Real Madrid W defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.71

Real Madrid W attack 2.29 + Santa Teresa defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Santa Teresa scores more

12%

level

19%

Real Madrid W scores more

69%

Real Madrid W at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Real Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff