Santa Teresa 1–0 Espanyol W: Result & Stats

Santa Teresa

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Espanyol W

11/11/2020

Primera División Femenina · Round 7Ciudad Deportiva del Viejo Vivero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Santa Teresa32%

×Draw27%

Espanyol W40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa TeresaExpected goals in this matchEspanyol W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.31

Santa Teresa

1.14

Espanyol W

1.31

Espanyol W creates 15% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 75 away

0.50

creates per match

0.80

1.83

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Santa Teresa

0.50

Espanyol W

0.80

allows per match

Santa Teresa

1.83

Espanyol W

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Teresa+0.00on par

Espanyol W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Teresa ↓

Espanyol W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Santa Teresa or draw

60%

Santa Teresa or Espanyol W

73%

Draw or Espanyol W

68%

Winning margin

Santa Teresa wins by 2+

13%

Espanyol W wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Santa Teresa 1+ goals

68%

Santa Teresa 2+ goals

32%

Santa Teresa 3+ goals

11%

Espanyol W 1+ goals

73%

Espanyol W 2+ goals

38%

Espanyol W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Santa Teresa (draw refunded)

44%

Espanyol W (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Teresa at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

Espanyol W away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.77 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Teresa attack 0.50 + Espanyol W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.14

Espanyol W attack 0.80 + Santa Teresa defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Santa Teresa scores more

32%

level

27%

Espanyol W scores more

40%

Espanyol W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Espanyol W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff