Santa Teresa 1–1 Edf Logrono W: Result & Stats

Santa Teresa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Edf Logrono W

5/23/2021

Primera División Femenina · Round 31Ciudad Deportiva del Viejo Vivero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Santa Teresa34%

×Draw26%

Edf Logrono W39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa TeresaExpected goals in this matchEdf Logrono W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.37

Santa Teresa

1.26

Edf Logrono W

1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 57 away

0.50

creates per match

0.91

1.83

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Santa Teresa

0.50

Edf Logrono W

0.91

allows per match

Santa Teresa

1.83

Edf Logrono W

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Teresa+0.00on par

Edf Logrono W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Teresa ↓

Edf Logrono W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Santa Teresa or draw

61%

Santa Teresa or Edf Logrono W

74%

Draw or Edf Logrono W

66%

Winning margin

Santa Teresa wins by 2+

15%

Edf Logrono W wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Santa Teresa 1+ goals

72%

Santa Teresa 2+ goals

36%

Santa Teresa 3+ goals

13%

Edf Logrono W 1+ goals

75%

Edf Logrono W 2+ goals

40%

Edf Logrono W 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Santa Teresa (draw refunded)

47%

Edf Logrono W (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Teresa at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

Edf Logrono W away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.02 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Teresa attack 0.50 + Edf Logrono W defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.26

Edf Logrono W attack 0.91 + Santa Teresa defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Santa Teresa scores more

34%

level

26%

Edf Logrono W scores more

39%

Edf Logrono W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Edf Logrono W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff