Santa Teresa 0–3 Deportivo de La Coruña W

Santa Teresa

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Deportivo de La Coruña W

2/7/2021

Primera División Femenina · Round 19Ciudad Deportiva del Viejo Vivero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Santa Teresa35%

×Draw25%

Deportivo de La Coruña W40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa TeresaExpected goals in this matchDeportivo de La Coruña W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.52

Santa Teresa

1.42

Deportivo de La Coruña W

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 59 away

0.50

creates per match

1.22

1.83

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Santa Teresa

0.50

Deportivo de La Coruña W

1.22

allows per match

Santa Teresa

1.83

Deportivo de La Coruña W

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Teresa+0.00on par

Deportivo de La Coruña W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Teresa ↓

Deportivo de La Coruña W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Santa Teresa or draw

60%

Santa Teresa or Deportivo de La Coruña W

75%

Draw or Deportivo de La Coruña W

65%

Winning margin

Santa Teresa wins by 2+

16%

Deportivo de La Coruña W wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Santa Teresa 1+ goals

76%

Santa Teresa 2+ goals

41%

Santa Teresa 3+ goals

17%

Deportivo de La Coruña W 1+ goals

78%

Deportivo de La Coruña W 2+ goals

45%

Deportivo de La Coruña W 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Santa Teresa (draw refunded)

47%

Deportivo de La Coruña W (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Teresa at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

Deportivo de La Coruña W away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.34 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Teresa attack 0.50 + Deportivo de La Coruña W defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.42

Deportivo de La Coruña W attack 1.22 + Santa Teresa defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Santa Teresa scores more

35%

level

25%

Deportivo de La Coruña W scores more

40%

Deportivo de La Coruña W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deportivo de La Coruña W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff