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Santa Tecla vs Platense FC — Primera Division 2019

Santa Tecla
Santa Tecla
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Platense FC
Platense FC
3/13/2022Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 1st Phase - 12Estadio Las Delicias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Santa Tecla37%
×Draw27%
Platense FC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Tecla
1.27
Platense FC
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 27 away

creates per match

Santa Tecla
1.31
Platense FC
1.07

allows per match

Santa Tecla
1.38
Platense FC
1.22

finishing

Santa Tecla+0.00on par
Platense FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Tecla ↓

Platense FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Santa Tecla or draw
64%
Santa Tecla or Platense FC
73%
Draw or Platense FC
63%

Winning margin

Santa Tecla wins by 2+
16%
Platense FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Santa Tecla 1+ goals
72%
Santa Tecla 2+ goals
36%
Santa Tecla 3+ goals
14%
Platense FC 1+ goals
71%
Platense FC 2+ goals
35%
Platense FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Santa Tecla (draw refunded)
51%
Platense FC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Tecla at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.38 · 98 matches

Platense FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Tecla attack 1.31 + Platense FC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Platense FC attack 1.07 + Santa Tecla defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Santa Tecla scores more
37%
level
27%
Platense FC scores more
36%

Santa Tecla at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Santa Tecla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: Santa Tecla 0–1 Platense FC

Platense FC beat Santa Tecla 1-0 in Primera Division on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Las Delicias in Santa Tecla.