Santa Rita vs Sagrada Esperança — Girabola 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 71+ matches
Santa Rita30%
Sagrada Esperança37%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Sagrada Esperança creates 15% more chances
Season form · 71 home / 104 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under71
- Over29
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No63
- Yes37
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Santa Rita ↓
Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Santa Rita at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.07 · 71 matches
Sagrada Esperança away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.97 · 104 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Santa Rita attack 0.77 + Sagrada Esperança defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.87
Sagrada Esperança attack 0.92 + Santa Rita defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 37%?"
Sagrada Esperança at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 37% does not mean "Sagrada Esperança will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Petro de Luanda
1º de Agosto
Onze Bravos
Desportivo HuílaSagrada Esperança
Académica do Lobito
Recreativo do Libolo
Interclube
Wiliete
Recreativo da Caála
Progresso
Sporting de Cabinda
Cuando Cubango
Ferroviário do Huambo
Santa Rita
1º de MaioIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Santa Rita host Sagrada Esperança on Sunday, 26 February 2023 at 14:00. The match is part of the Girabola 2019/2020 season.
Girabola: Santa Rita 0–1 Sagrada Esperança
Sagrada Esperança beat Santa Rita 1-0 in Girabola on February 26, 2023.
The match was played at Estádio 4 de Janeiro in Uíge.