Santa Rita 1–1 Progresso: Result & Stats | Girabola

Santa Rita

FT

1 – 1

Progresso

5/9/2021

Girabola · Round 18Estádio 4 de Janeiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Santa Rita49%

×Draw28%

Progresso23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa RitaExpected goals in this matchProgresso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.80

Santa Rita

1.33

Progresso

0.80

Santa Rita creates 66% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 44 away

0.77

creates per match

0.52

1.07

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Santa Rita

0.77

Progresso

0.52

allows per match

Santa Rita

1.07

Progresso

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Rita+0.00on par

Progresso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Rita ↓

Progresso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Santa Rita or draw

77%

Santa Rita or Progresso

72%

Draw or Progresso

51%

Winning margin

Santa Rita wins by 2+

23%

Progresso wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Santa Rita 1+ goals

74%

Santa Rita 2+ goals

38%

Santa Rita 3+ goals

15%

Progresso 1+ goals

55%

Progresso 2+ goals

19%

Progresso 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Santa Rita (draw refunded)

69%

Progresso (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Rita at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.07 · 71 matches

Progresso away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.89 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Rita attack 0.77 + Progresso defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.33

Progresso attack 0.52 + Santa Rita defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Santa Rita scores more

49%

level

28%

Progresso scores more

23%

Santa Rita at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Santa Rita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff