Santa Rita 1–1 Orense SC: Result & Stats

Santa Rita

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Orense SC

9/1/2019

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 25Estadio 14 de Junio (Vínces)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Santa Rita44%

×Draw28%

Orense SC28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa RitaExpected goals in this matchOrense SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.01

Santa Rita

1.33

Orense SC

1.01

Santa Rita creates 32% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 42 away

1.36

creates per match

1.19

0.84

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Santa Rita

1.36

Orense SC

1.19

allows per match

Santa Rita

0.84

Orense SC

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Rita+0.00on par

Orense SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Rita ↓

Orense SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Santa Rita or draw

72%

Santa Rita or Orense SC

72%

Draw or Orense SC

56%

Winning margin

Santa Rita wins by 2+

20%

Orense SC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Santa Rita 1+ goals

74%

Santa Rita 2+ goals

38%

Santa Rita 3+ goals

15%

Orense SC 1+ goals

64%

Orense SC 2+ goals

27%

Orense SC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Santa Rita (draw refunded)

61%

Orense SC (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Rita at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.84 · 50 matches

Orense SC away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.31 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Rita attack 1.36 + Orense SC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.33

Orense SC attack 1.19 + Santa Rita defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Santa Rita scores more

44%

level

28%

Orense SC scores more

28%

Santa Rita at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Santa Rita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff