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Santa Rita vs Manta FC — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Santa Rita
Santa Rita
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Manta FC
Manta FC
9/21/2020Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 8Estadio 14 de Junio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Santa Rita47%
×Draw28%
Manta FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Rita
1.31
Manta FC
0.88

Santa Rita creates 49% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 104 away

creates per match

Santa Rita
1.36
Manta FC
0.91

allows per match

Santa Rita
0.84
Manta FC
1.27

finishing

Santa Rita+0.00on par
Manta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Rita ↓

Manta FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Santa Rita or draw
75%
Santa Rita or Manta FC
72%
Draw or Manta FC
53%

Winning margin

Santa Rita wins by 2+
22%
Manta FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Santa Rita 1+ goals
73%
Santa Rita 2+ goals
38%
Santa Rita 3+ goals
14%
Manta FC 1+ goals
59%
Manta FC 2+ goals
22%
Manta FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Santa Rita (draw refunded)
65%
Manta FC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Rita at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.84 · 50 matches

Manta FC away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.27 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Rita attack 1.36 + Manta FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.31

Manta FC attack 0.91 + Santa Rita defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Santa Rita scores more
47%
level
28%
Manta FC scores more
25%

Santa Rita at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Santa Rita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santa Rita vs Manta FC

Santa Rita and Manta FC drew 1-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on September 21, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio 14 de Junio in Vínces.