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Santa Rita vs Dragão — Girabola 2019

Santa Rita
Santa Rita
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Dragão
Dragão
4/30/2023GirabolaGirabola · Round 27Estádio 4 de Janeiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Santa Rita62%
×Draw23%
Dragão15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Rita
1.78
Dragão
0.75

Santa Rita creates 137% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 14 away

creates per match

Santa Rita
0.77
Dragão
0.43

allows per match

Santa Rita
1.07
Dragão
2.79

finishing

Santa Rita+0.00on par
Dragão+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Rita ↓

Dragão →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Santa Rita or draw
85%
Santa Rita or Dragão
77%
Draw or Dragão
38%

Winning margin

Santa Rita wins by 2+
36%
Dragão wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Santa Rita 1+ goals
83%
Santa Rita 2+ goals
53%
Santa Rita 3+ goals
26%
Dragão 1+ goals
53%
Dragão 2+ goals
17%
Dragão 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Santa Rita (draw refunded)
80%
Dragão (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Rita at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.07 · 71 matches

Dragão away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Rita attack 0.77 + Dragão defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 1.78

Dragão attack 0.43 + Santa Rita defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Santa Rita scores more
62%
level
23%
Dragão scores more
15%

Santa Rita at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Santa Rita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Santa Rita 2–1 Dragão

Santa Rita beat Dragão 2-1 in Girabola on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio 4 de Janeiro in Uíge.