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Santa Rita vs CD Olmedo — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Santa Rita
Santa Rita
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CD Olmedo
CD Olmedo
10/28/2017Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 39Estadio 14 de Junio (Vínces)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Santa Rita43%
×Draw29%
CD Olmedo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Rita
1.22
CD Olmedo
0.93

Santa Rita creates 31% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 42 away

creates per match

Santa Rita
1.36
CD Olmedo
1.02

allows per match

Santa Rita
0.84
CD Olmedo
1.07

finishing

Santa Rita+0.00on par
CD Olmedo+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Rita ↓

CD Olmedo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Santa Rita or draw
72%
Santa Rita or CD Olmedo
71%
Draw or CD Olmedo
57%

Winning margin

Santa Rita wins by 2+
19%
CD Olmedo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Santa Rita 1+ goals
70%
Santa Rita 2+ goals
34%
Santa Rita 3+ goals
12%
CD Olmedo 1+ goals
61%
CD Olmedo 2+ goals
24%
CD Olmedo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Santa Rita (draw refunded)
60%
CD Olmedo (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Rita at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.84 · 50 matches

CD Olmedo away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.07 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Rita attack 1.36 + CD Olmedo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.22

CD Olmedo attack 1.02 + Santa Rita defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Santa Rita scores more
43%
level
29%
CD Olmedo scores more
28%

Santa Rita at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Santa Rita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santa Rita vs CD Olmedo

Santa Rita beat CD Olmedo 1-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on October 28, 2017.

The match was played at Estadio 14 de Junio (Vínces).