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Santa Marta Penaguião vs Camacha — Taça de Portugal 2018

Santa Marta Penaguião
Santa Marta Penaguião
FT
0 – 3
Camacha
Camacha
9/11/2021Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundEstádio Municipal de Santa Marta de Penaguião

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Santa Marta Penaguião16%
×Draw19%
Camacha65%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Marta Penaguião
1.00
Camacha
2.25

Camacha creates 125% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Santa Marta Penaguião
1.00
Camacha
2.83

allows per match

Santa Marta Penaguião
1.67
Camacha
1.00

finishing

Santa Marta Penaguião+0.00on par
Camacha+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Marta Penaguião ↓

Camacha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Santa Marta Penaguião or draw
35%
Santa Marta Penaguião or Camacha
81%
Draw or Camacha
84%

Winning margin

Santa Marta Penaguião wins by 2+
5%
Camacha wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Santa Marta Penaguião 1+ goals
63%
Santa Marta Penaguião 2+ goals
26%
Santa Marta Penaguião 3+ goals
8%
Camacha 1+ goals
89%
Camacha 2+ goals
65%
Camacha 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Santa Marta Penaguião (draw refunded)
19%
Camacha (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Marta Penaguião at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Camacha away — creates 2.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Marta Penaguião attack 1.00 + Camacha defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Camacha attack 2.83 + Santa Marta Penaguião defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Santa Marta Penaguião scores more
16%
level
19%
Camacha scores more
65%

Camacha at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Camacha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santa Marta Penaguião vs Camacha

Camacha beat Santa Marta Penaguião 3-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Santa Marta de Penaguião in Santa Marta de Penaguião.