Santa Lucía 2–0 Marsa: Result & Stats | FA Trophy

Santa Lucía

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Marsa

1/11/2024

FA Trophy · 1st RoundMFA Centenary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Santa Lucía22%

×Draw24%

Marsa54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa LucíaExpected goals in this matchMarsa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.70

Santa Lucía

1.00

Marsa

1.70

Marsa creates 70% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.20

creates per match

2.20

1.20

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Santa Lucía

1.20

Marsa

2.20

allows per match

Santa Lucía

1.20

Marsa

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Lucía+0.00on par

Marsa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Lucía ↓

Marsa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Santa Lucía or draw

46%

Santa Lucía or Marsa

76%

Draw or Marsa

78%

Winning margin

Santa Lucía wins by 2+

8%

Marsa wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Santa Lucía 1+ goals

63%

Santa Lucía 2+ goals

26%

Santa Lucía 3+ goals

8%

Marsa 1+ goals

82%

Marsa 2+ goals

51%

Marsa 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Santa Lucía (draw refunded)

29%

Marsa (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Lucía at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Marsa away — creates 2.20, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Lucía attack 1.20 + Marsa defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.00

Marsa attack 2.20 + Santa Lucía defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Santa Lucía scores more

22%

level

24%

Marsa scores more

54%

Marsa at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Marsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff