Santa Lucía 2–0 Comunicaciones: Result & Stats

Santa Lucía

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Comunicaciones

9/15/2021

Liga Nacional · Apertura - 8Estadio Municipal Santa Lucía Cotzumalguapa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Santa Lucía39%

×Draw28%

Comunicaciones32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa LucíaExpected goals in this matchComunicaciones

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.06

Santa Lucía

1.21

Comunicaciones

1.06

Santa Lucía creates 14% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 157 away

1.23

creates per match

1.11

1.01

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Santa Lucía

1.23

Comunicaciones

1.11

allows per match

Santa Lucía

1.01

Comunicaciones

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Lucía+0.00on par

Comunicaciones+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Lucía ↓

Comunicaciones →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Santa Lucía or draw

68%

Santa Lucía or Comunicaciones

72%

Draw or Comunicaciones

61%

Winning margin

Santa Lucía wins by 2+

17%

Comunicaciones wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Santa Lucía 1+ goals

70%

Santa Lucía 2+ goals

34%

Santa Lucía 3+ goals

12%

Comunicaciones 1+ goals

65%

Comunicaciones 2+ goals

29%

Comunicaciones 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Santa Lucía (draw refunded)

55%

Comunicaciones (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Lucía at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.01 · 82 matches

Comunicaciones away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.20 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Lucía attack 1.23 + Comunicaciones defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Comunicaciones attack 1.11 + Santa Lucía defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Santa Lucía scores more

39%

level

28%

Comunicaciones scores more

32%

Santa Lucía at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Santa Lucía will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff