Comunicaciones 3–1 Santa Lucía: Result & Stats

Comunicaciones

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Santa Lucía

4/16/2023

Liga Nacional · Clausura - 18Estadio Cementos Progreso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Comunicaciones56%

×Draw25%

Santa Lucía20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ComunicacionesExpected goals in this matchSanta Lucía

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.84

Comunicaciones

1.61

Santa Lucía

0.84

Comunicaciones creates 92% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 83 away

1.70

creates per match

0.84

0.85

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Comunicaciones

1.70

Santa Lucía

0.84

allows per match

Comunicaciones

0.85

Santa Lucía

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Comunicaciones+0.00on par

Santa Lucía+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comunicaciones ↓

Santa Lucía →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Comunicaciones or draw

80%

Comunicaciones or Santa Lucía

75%

Draw or Santa Lucía

44%

Winning margin

Comunicaciones wins by 2+

30%

Santa Lucía wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Comunicaciones 1+ goals

80%

Comunicaciones 2+ goals

48%

Comunicaciones 3+ goals

22%

Santa Lucía 1+ goals

57%

Santa Lucía 2+ goals

21%

Santa Lucía 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Comunicaciones (draw refunded)

74%

Santa Lucía (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comunicaciones at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.85 · 156 matches

Santa Lucía away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.52 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comunicaciones attack 1.70 + Santa Lucía defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.61

Santa Lucía attack 0.84 + Comunicaciones defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Comunicaciones scores more

56%

level

25%

Santa Lucía scores more

20%

Comunicaciones at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Comunicaciones will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff