Santa Fe W 5–0 Deportivo Pasto W: Result & Stats

Santa Fe W

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Deportivo Pasto W

3/31/2023

Liga Femenina · Apertura - 9Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Santa Fe W67%

×Draw20%

Deportivo Pasto W13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa Fe WExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Pasto W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

0.73

Santa Fe W

2.02

Deportivo Pasto W

0.73

Santa Fe W creates 177% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 33 away

2.24

creates per match

0.67

0.79

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Santa Fe W

2.24

Deportivo Pasto W

0.67

allows per match

Santa Fe W

0.79

Deportivo Pasto W

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Fe W+0.00on par

Deportivo Pasto W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Fe W ↓

Deportivo Pasto W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Santa Fe W or draw

87%

Santa Fe W or Deportivo Pasto W

80%

Draw or Deportivo Pasto W

33%

Winning margin

Santa Fe W wins by 2+

42%

Deportivo Pasto W wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Santa Fe W 1+ goals

87%

Santa Fe W 2+ goals

60%

Santa Fe W 3+ goals

33%

Deportivo Pasto W 1+ goals

52%

Deportivo Pasto W 2+ goals

17%

Deportivo Pasto W 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Santa Fe W (draw refunded)

84%

Deportivo Pasto W (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Fe W at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.79 · 63 matches

Deportivo Pasto W away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Fe W attack 2.24 + Deportivo Pasto W defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.02

Deportivo Pasto W attack 0.67 + Santa Fe W defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Santa Fe W scores more

67%

level

20%

Deportivo Pasto W scores more

13%

Santa Fe W at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Santa Fe W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff