Santa Fe W 1–0 Alianza W: Result & Stats

Santa Fe W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Alianza W

5/15/2024

Liga Femenina · Apertura - 11Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Santa Fe W66%

×Draw20%

Alianza W14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa Fe WExpected goals in this matchAlianza W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

0.84

Santa Fe W

2.09

Alianza W

0.84

Santa Fe W creates 149% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 18 away

2.24

creates per match

0.89

0.79

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Santa Fe W

2.24

Alianza W

0.89

allows per match

Santa Fe W

0.79

Alianza W

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Fe W+0.00on par

Alianza W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Fe W ↓

Alianza W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Santa Fe W or draw

86%

Santa Fe W or Alianza W

80%

Draw or Alianza W

34%

Winning margin

Santa Fe W wins by 2+

42%

Alianza W wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Santa Fe W 1+ goals

88%

Santa Fe W 2+ goals

62%

Santa Fe W 3+ goals

34%

Alianza W 1+ goals

57%

Alianza W 2+ goals

21%

Alianza W 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Santa Fe W (draw refunded)

82%

Alianza W (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Fe W at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.79 · 63 matches

Alianza W away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Fe W attack 2.24 + Alianza W defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.09

Alianza W attack 0.89 + Santa Fe W defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Santa Fe W scores more

66%

level

20%

Alianza W scores more

14%

Santa Fe W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Santa Fe W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff