Santa Fe 0–1 Estrella: Result & Stats

Santa Fe

FT

0 – 1

Estrella

10/2/2022

Division di Honor · Round 3Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Santa Fe25%

×Draw18%

Estrella57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa FeExpected goals in this matchEstrella

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

2.67

Santa Fe

1.74

Estrella

2.67

Estrella creates 53% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 60 away

1.00

creates per match

2.08

3.25

allows per match

2.48

creates per match

Santa Fe

1.00

Estrella

2.08

allows per match

Santa Fe

3.25

Estrella

2.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Fe+0.00on par

Estrella+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Fe ↓

Estrella →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Santa Fe or draw

43%

Santa Fe or Estrella

82%

Draw or Estrella

75%

Winning margin

Santa Fe wins by 2+

12%

Estrella wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Santa Fe 1+ goals

82%

Santa Fe 2+ goals

52%

Santa Fe 3+ goals

25%

Estrella 1+ goals

93%

Estrella 2+ goals

74%

Estrella 3+ goals

49%

Draw no bet

Santa Fe (draw refunded)

30%

Estrella (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Fe at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.25 · 8 matches

Estrella away — creates 2.08, concedes 2.48 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Fe attack 1.00 + Estrella defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 1.74

Estrella attack 2.08 + Santa Fe defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Santa Fe scores more

25%

level

18%

Estrella scores more

57%

Estrella at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Estrella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff