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Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pereira — Primera A 2018

Santa Fe
Santa Fe
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Deportivo Pereira
Deportivo Pereira
1/28/2026Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 3Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Santa Fe50%
×Draw27%
Deportivo Pereira23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Fe
1.41
Deportivo Pereira
0.87

Santa Fe creates 62% more chances

Season form · 183 home / 131 away

creates per match

Santa Fe
1.39
Deportivo Pereira
0.93

allows per match

Santa Fe
0.81
Deportivo Pereira
1.43

finishing

Santa Fe+0.00on par
Deportivo Pereira+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Fe ↓

Deportivo Pereira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Santa Fe or draw
77%
Santa Fe or Deportivo Pereira
73%
Draw or Deportivo Pereira
50%

Winning margin

Santa Fe wins by 2+
24%
Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Santa Fe 1+ goals
76%
Santa Fe 2+ goals
41%
Santa Fe 3+ goals
17%
Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals
58%
Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals
22%
Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Santa Fe (draw refunded)
68%
Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Fe at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.81 · 183 matches

Deportivo Pereira away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.43 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Fe attack 1.39 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.41

Deportivo Pereira attack 0.93 + Santa Fe defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Santa Fe scores more
50%
level
27%
Deportivo Pereira scores more
23%

Santa Fe at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Santa Fe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Santa Fe 2–2 Deportivo Pereira

Santa Fe and Deportivo Pereira drew 2-2 in Primera A on January 28, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin in Bogota.