Santa Fe 2–0 Cortulua: Result & Stats | Primera A

Santa Fe

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cortulua

2/26/2017

Primera A · Apertura - 6Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Santa Fe54%

×Draw26%

Cortulua20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa FeExpected goals in this matchCortulua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.80

Santa Fe

1.51

Cortulua

0.80

Santa Fe creates 89% more chances

Season form · 183 home / 36 away

1.39

creates per match

0.78

0.81

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Santa Fe

1.39

Cortulua

0.78

allows per match

Santa Fe

0.81

Cortulua

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Fe+0.00on par

Cortulua+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Fe ↓

Cortulua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Santa Fe or draw

80%

Santa Fe or Cortulua

74%

Draw or Cortulua

46%

Winning margin

Santa Fe wins by 2+

28%

Cortulua wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Santa Fe 1+ goals

78%

Santa Fe 2+ goals

44%

Santa Fe 3+ goals

19%

Cortulua 1+ goals

55%

Cortulua 2+ goals

19%

Cortulua 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Santa Fe (draw refunded)

73%

Cortulua (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Fe at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.81 · 183 matches

Cortulua away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.64 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Fe attack 1.39 + Cortulua defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.51

Cortulua attack 0.78 + Santa Fe defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Santa Fe scores more

54%

level

26%

Cortulua scores more

20%

Santa Fe at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Santa Fe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff