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Santa Fe vs Chico — Primera A 2018

Santa Fe
Santa Fe
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Chico
Chico
10/11/2024Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 9Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Santa Fe63%
×Draw21%
Chico16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Fe
1.93
Chico
0.84

Santa Fe creates 130% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Santa Fe
1.40
Chico
1.11

allows per match

Santa Fe
0.58
Chico
2.46

finishing

Santa Fe-0.23scores less
Chico-0.91scores less

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Fe ↓

Chico →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Santa Fe or draw
84%
Santa Fe or Chico
79%
Draw or Chico
37%

Winning margin

Santa Fe wins by 2+
38%
Chico wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Santa Fe 1+ goals
85%
Santa Fe 2+ goals
57%
Santa Fe 3+ goals
30%
Chico 1+ goals
57%
Chico 2+ goals
21%
Chico 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Santa Fe (draw refunded)
80%
Chico (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Fe at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.58 · 6 matches

Chico away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.46 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Fe attack 1.40 + Chico defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.93

Chico attack 1.11 + Santa Fe defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Santa Fe scores more
63%
level
21%
Chico scores more
16%

Santa Fe at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Santa Fe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Santa Fe 3–1 Chico

Santa Fe beat Chico 3-1 in Primera A on October 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín in Bogotá, D.C..