Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Santa Cruz vs UCAM Murcia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Santa Cruz
Santa Cruz
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
UCAM Murcia II
UCAM Murcia II
11/15/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 11Estadio Municipal de Llano de Brujas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Santa Cruz30%
×Draw28%
UCAM Murcia II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Cruz
1.01
UCAM Murcia II
1.25

UCAM Murcia II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 110 away

creates per match

Santa Cruz
0.88
UCAM Murcia II
1.33

allows per match

Santa Cruz
1.18
UCAM Murcia II
1.14

finishing

Santa Cruz+0.00on par
UCAM Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Cruz ↓

UCAM Murcia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Santa Cruz or draw
58%
Santa Cruz or UCAM Murcia II
72%
Draw or UCAM Murcia II
70%

Winning margin

Santa Cruz wins by 2+
11%
UCAM Murcia II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Santa Cruz 1+ goals
64%
Santa Cruz 2+ goals
27%
Santa Cruz 3+ goals
8%
UCAM Murcia II 1+ goals
71%
UCAM Murcia II 2+ goals
36%
UCAM Murcia II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Santa Cruz (draw refunded)
42%
UCAM Murcia II (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Cruz at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

UCAM Murcia II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Cruz attack 0.88 + UCAM Murcia II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.01

UCAM Murcia II attack 1.33 + Santa Cruz defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Santa Cruz scores more
30%
level
28%
UCAM Murcia II scores more
42%

UCAM Murcia II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "UCAM Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Santa Cruz 0–1 UCAM Murcia II

UCAM Murcia II beat Santa Cruz 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 15, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Llano de Brujas in Llano de Brujas.