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Santa Cruz vs Santomera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Santa Cruz
Santa Cruz
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Santomera
Santomera
2/18/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 22Estadio Municipal de Llano de Brujas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Santa Cruz37%
×Draw25%
Santomera38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Cruz
1.40
Santomera
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Santa Cruz
0.88
Santomera
1.68

allows per match

Santa Cruz
1.18
Santomera
1.91

finishing

Santa Cruz+0.00on par
Santomera+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Cruz ↓

Santomera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Santa Cruz or draw
62%
Santa Cruz or Santomera
75%
Draw or Santomera
63%

Winning margin

Santa Cruz wins by 2+
17%
Santomera wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Santa Cruz 1+ goals
75%
Santa Cruz 2+ goals
41%
Santa Cruz 3+ goals
17%
Santomera 1+ goals
76%
Santomera 2+ goals
42%
Santomera 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Santa Cruz (draw refunded)
49%
Santomera (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Cruz at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Santomera away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.91 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Cruz attack 0.88 + Santomera defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.40

Santomera attack 1.68 + Santa Cruz defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Santa Cruz scores more
37%
level
25%
Santomera scores more
38%

Santomera at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Santomera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Santa Cruz 0–2 Santomera

Santomera beat Santa Cruz 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 18, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Llano de Brujas in Llano de Brujas.