Santa Cruz 5–0 San José: Result & Stats

Santa Cruz

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

San José

7/26/2021

Primera División · Round 11Estadio Real Santa Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Santa Cruz52%

×Draw22%

San José26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa CruzExpected goals in this matchSan José

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.27

Santa Cruz

1.90

San José

1.27

Santa Cruz creates 50% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 54 away

1.40

creates per match

1.06

1.49

allows per match

2.39

creates per match

Santa Cruz

1.40

San José

1.06

allows per match

Santa Cruz

1.49

San José

2.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Cruz+0.00on par

San José+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Cruz ↓

San José →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Santa Cruz or draw

74%

Santa Cruz or San José

78%

Draw or San José

48%

Winning margin

Santa Cruz wins by 2+

30%

San José wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Santa Cruz 1+ goals

85%

Santa Cruz 2+ goals

56%

Santa Cruz 3+ goals

29%

San José 1+ goals

72%

San José 2+ goals

36%

San José 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Santa Cruz (draw refunded)

67%

San José (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Cruz at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.49 · 83 matches

San José away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.39 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Cruz attack 1.40 + San José defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 1.90

San José attack 1.06 + Santa Cruz defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Santa Cruz scores more

52%

level

22%

San José scores more

26%

Santa Cruz at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Santa Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff