Santa Cruz 1–0 Salgueiro: Result & Stats | Serie C

Santa Cruz

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Salgueiro

8/11/2018

Serie C · Round 18Estádio Jóse do Rego Maciel (Recife, Pernambuco)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Santa Cruz53%

×Draw28%

Salgueiro19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa CruzExpected goals in this matchSalgueiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.69

Santa Cruz

1.36

Salgueiro

0.69

Santa Cruz creates 97% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 9 away

1.40

creates per match

0.33

1.04

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Santa Cruz

1.40

Salgueiro

0.33

allows per match

Santa Cruz

1.04

Salgueiro

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Cruz+0.00on par

Salgueiro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Cruz ↓

Salgueiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Santa Cruz or draw

81%

Santa Cruz or Salgueiro

72%

Draw or Salgueiro

47%

Winning margin

Santa Cruz wins by 2+

26%

Salgueiro wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Santa Cruz 1+ goals

74%

Santa Cruz 2+ goals

39%

Santa Cruz 3+ goals

16%

Salgueiro 1+ goals

50%

Salgueiro 2+ goals

15%

Salgueiro 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Santa Cruz (draw refunded)

74%

Salgueiro (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Cruz at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

Salgueiro away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Cruz attack 1.40 + Salgueiro defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Salgueiro attack 0.33 + Santa Cruz defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Santa Cruz scores more

53%

level

28%

Salgueiro scores more

19%

Santa Cruz at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Santa Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff