Santa Cruz 0–1 Oriente Petrolero: Result & Stats

Santa Cruz

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Oriente Petrolero

C. Áñez 90+8'

7/27/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 7Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Santa Cruz47%

×Draw24%

Oriente Petrolero30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa CruzExpected goals in this matchOriente Petrolero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.33

Santa Cruz

1.73

Oriente Petrolero

1.33

Santa Cruz creates 30% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 127 away

1.40

creates per match

1.17

1.49

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Santa Cruz

1.40

Oriente Petrolero

1.17

allows per match

Santa Cruz

1.49

Oriente Petrolero

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Cruz+0.00on par

Oriente Petrolero+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Cruz ↓

Oriente Petrolero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Santa Cruz or draw

70%

Santa Cruz or Oriente Petrolero

76%

Draw or Oriente Petrolero

53%

Winning margin

Santa Cruz wins by 2+

25%

Oriente Petrolero wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Santa Cruz 1+ goals

82%

Santa Cruz 2+ goals

52%

Santa Cruz 3+ goals

25%

Oriente Petrolero 1+ goals

74%

Oriente Petrolero 2+ goals

38%

Oriente Petrolero 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Santa Cruz (draw refunded)

61%

Oriente Petrolero (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Cruz at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.49 · 83 matches

Oriente Petrolero away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.06 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Cruz attack 1.40 + Oriente Petrolero defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.73

Oriente Petrolero attack 1.17 + Santa Cruz defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Santa Cruz scores more

47%

level

24%

Oriente Petrolero scores more

30%

Santa Cruz at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Santa Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

C. Áñez

Oriente Petrolero · D

7.9

Match Events

24'

Efmamj Jasond GonzálezGoal cancelled

45+2'

Efmamj Jasond González

46'

A. Mercado← J. Caicedo

46'

M. Ovando← I. Cárdenas

46'

B. Moreno← J. Pajoy

46'

D. Rojas← F. Gonzales

53'

Alan Mercado

55'

Hugo Dorrego

55'

Erwin Junior SánchezGoal cancelled

62'

M. Riquelme← H. Dorrego

63'

J. García← K. Salvatierra

67'

R. Diez← F. Vargas

86'

Brayan Moreno

88'

G. Malgor← C. Abastoflor

90+4'

Jefferson Ibáñez

90+4'

Jefferson IbáñezCard upgrade

90+8'

L. Ardaya← E. González

90'

S. Ramírez← J. Sánchez

90+8'

C. Áñez↳ J. García

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SantaOriente

Overview

46%Possession54%

17Total Shots12

9Corners6

14Fouls10

Shots

17Total Shots12

4On Target4

9Off Target4

4Blocked4

10Inside Box5

7Outside Box7

Passing

46%Possession54%

242Total Passes286

169Accurate Passes191

70%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls10

3Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2