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Santa Cruz vs Olímpico Totana — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Santa Cruz
Santa Cruz
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Olímpico Totana
Olímpico Totana
1/17/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 18Estadio Municipal de Llano de Brujas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Santa Cruz35%
×Draw29%
Olímpico Totana35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Cruz
1.08
Olímpico Totana
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 50 away

creates per match

Santa Cruz
0.88
Olímpico Totana
0.98

allows per match

Santa Cruz
1.18
Olímpico Totana
1.28

finishing

Santa Cruz+0.00on par
Olímpico Totana+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Cruz ↓

Olímpico Totana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Santa Cruz or draw
65%
Santa Cruz or Olímpico Totana
71%
Draw or Olímpico Totana
65%

Winning margin

Santa Cruz wins by 2+
14%
Olímpico Totana wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Santa Cruz 1+ goals
66%
Santa Cruz 2+ goals
29%
Santa Cruz 3+ goals
10%
Olímpico Totana 1+ goals
66%
Olímpico Totana 2+ goals
29%
Olímpico Totana 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Santa Cruz (draw refunded)
50%
Olímpico Totana (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Cruz at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Olímpico Totana away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.28 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Cruz attack 0.88 + Olímpico Totana defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.08

Olímpico Totana attack 0.98 + Santa Cruz defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Santa Cruz scores more
35%
level
29%
Olímpico Totana scores more
35%

Santa Cruz at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Santa Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santa Cruz vs Olímpico Totana

Olímpico Totana beat Santa Cruz 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on January 17, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Llano de Brujas in Llano de Brujas.