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Santa Cruz vs Mazarrón FC — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Santa Cruz
Santa Cruz
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mazarrón FC
Mazarrón FC
3/21/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 27Estadio Municipal de Llano de Brujas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Santa Cruz34%
×Draw28%
Mazarrón FC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Cruz
1.10
Mazarrón FC
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 63 away

creates per match

Santa Cruz
0.88
Mazarrón FC
1.21

allows per match

Santa Cruz
1.18
Mazarrón FC
1.33

finishing

Santa Cruz+0.00on par
Mazarrón FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Cruz ↓

Mazarrón FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Santa Cruz or draw
62%
Santa Cruz or Mazarrón FC
72%
Draw or Mazarrón FC
66%

Winning margin

Santa Cruz wins by 2+
13%
Mazarrón FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Santa Cruz 1+ goals
67%
Santa Cruz 2+ goals
30%
Santa Cruz 3+ goals
10%
Mazarrón FC 1+ goals
70%
Mazarrón FC 2+ goals
33%
Mazarrón FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Santa Cruz (draw refunded)
47%
Mazarrón FC (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Cruz at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Mazarrón FC away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.33 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Cruz attack 0.88 + Mazarrón FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.10

Mazarrón FC attack 1.21 + Santa Cruz defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Santa Cruz scores more
34%
level
28%
Mazarrón FC scores more
38%

Mazarrón FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Mazarrón FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Santa Cruz 1 – 1 Mazarrón FC

Santa Cruz and Mazarrón FC drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on March 21, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Llano de Brujas in Llano de Brujas.