Santa Cruz 3–2 Libertad: Result & Stats

Santa Cruz

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Libertad

4/23/2023

Primera División · Round 10Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Santa Cruz59%

×Draw21%

Libertad20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa CruzExpected goals in this matchLibertad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.16

Santa Cruz

2.12

Libertad

1.16

Santa Cruz creates 83% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 18 away

1.40

creates per match

0.83

1.49

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Santa Cruz

1.40

Libertad

0.83

allows per match

Santa Cruz

1.49

Libertad

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Cruz+0.00on par

Libertad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Cruz ↓

Libertad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Santa Cruz or draw

80%

Santa Cruz or Libertad

79%

Draw or Libertad

41%

Winning margin

Santa Cruz wins by 2+

36%

Libertad wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Santa Cruz 1+ goals

88%

Santa Cruz 2+ goals

62%

Santa Cruz 3+ goals

35%

Libertad 1+ goals

69%

Libertad 2+ goals

32%

Libertad 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Santa Cruz (draw refunded)

74%

Libertad (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Cruz at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.49 · 83 matches

Libertad away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Cruz attack 1.40 + Libertad defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.12

Libertad attack 0.83 + Santa Cruz defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Santa Cruz scores more

59%

level

21%

Libertad scores more

20%

Santa Cruz at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Santa Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff