Santa Cruz vs Guabirá — Primera División 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 83+ matches
Santa Cruz52%
Guabirá25%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Santa Cruz creates 51% more chances
Season form · 83 home / 129 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over58
- Under42
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes59
- No41
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Santa Cruz ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Santa Cruz at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.49 · 83 matches
Guabirá away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.27 · 129 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Santa Cruz attack 1.40 + Guabirá defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.83
Guabirá attack 0.92 + Santa Cruz defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.21
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 52%?"
Santa Cruz at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 52% does not mean "Santa Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Jorge Wilstermann
The Strongest
Bolívar
San José
Always Ready
Oriente Petrolero
Nacional Potosí
Blooming
Royal Pari
Aurora
Real PotosíGuabirá
Club Destroyers
Sport BoysBolívarThe StrongestNacional PotosíBloomingSan JoséJorge WilstermannOriente PetroleroGuabiráAlways ReadyReal PotosíRoyal PariSport BoysAuroraClub DestroyersIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Santa Cruz host Guabirá on Friday, 8 March 2024 at 19:00. The match is part of the Primera División 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: Santa Cruz vs Guabirá
Santa Cruz and Guabirá drew 1-1 in Primera División on March 8, 2024.
Goals: Ángel Sánchez (39'), R. Vásquez (73').
Guabirá controlled possession (62%) and registered 16 shots to 9.
The match was played at Estadio Real Santa Cruz in Santa Cruz de la Sierra.