Santa Cruz 5–1 Gremio: Result & Stats | Serie A

Santa Cruz

FT

5 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Gremio

Arthur 90'

Grafite 88', 49'

Roberto 86'

Leo Moura 61'

M. Bolaños 53'

11/27/2016

Serie A · Round 37Estádio do Arruda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Santa Cruz39%

×Draw27%

Gremio34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa CruzExpected goals in this matchGremio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.23

Santa Cruz

1.34

Gremio

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 252 away

1.42

creates per match

1.03

1.42

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Santa Cruz

1.42

Gremio

1.03

allows per match

Santa Cruz

1.42

Gremio

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Cruz+0.00on par

Gremio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Cruz ↓

Gremio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Santa Cruz or draw

66%

Santa Cruz or Gremio

73%

Draw or Gremio

61%

Winning margin

Santa Cruz wins by 2+

18%

Gremio wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Santa Cruz 1+ goals

74%

Santa Cruz 2+ goals

39%

Santa Cruz 3+ goals

15%

Gremio 1+ goals

71%

Gremio 2+ goals

35%

Gremio 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Santa Cruz (draw refunded)

54%

Gremio (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Cruz at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

Gremio away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.27 · 252 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Cruz attack 1.42 + Gremio defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.34

Gremio attack 1.03 + Santa Cruz defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Santa Cruz scores more

39%

level

27%

Gremio scores more

34%

Santa Cruz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Santa Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

Grafite

Santa Cruz · F

8.5

Match Events

31'

Kaio Mendes

35'

Léo Moura

49'

Grafite↳ Keno

53'

M. Bolaños↳ Pedro Rocha

61'

Leo Moura

62'

Guilherme Amorim

64'

66'

68'

69'

70'

85'

85'

M. Pisano← Keno

85'

Batista← Henrique Almeida

86'

Roberto

88'

Grafite↳ Vitor

90'

Arthur↳ Roberto

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SantaGremio

Overview

47%Possession53%

21Total Shots5

3Corners4

12Fouls16

Shots

21Total Shots5

9On Target2

9Off Target1

3Blocked2

13Inside Box4

8Outside Box1

Passing

47%Possession53%

419Total Passes479

355Accurate Passes402

85%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls16

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

2Offsides3