Santa Cruz 3–1 Ferroviario: Result & Stats

Santa Cruz

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ferroviario

Geovany Soares 87'

Thiaguinho 69', 27'

K. Rivas 71'

6/1/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Jóse do Rego Maciel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Santa Cruz46%

×Draw29%

Ferroviario25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa CruzExpected goals in this matchFerroviario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.86

Santa Cruz

1.28

Ferroviario

0.86

Santa Cruz creates 49% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 35 away

1.33

creates per match

1.06

0.67

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Santa Cruz

1.33

Ferroviario

1.06

allows per match

Santa Cruz

0.67

Ferroviario

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Cruz+0.00on par

Ferroviario+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Cruz ↓

Ferroviario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Santa Cruz or draw

75%

Santa Cruz or Ferroviario

71%

Draw or Ferroviario

54%

Winning margin

Santa Cruz wins by 2+

21%

Ferroviario wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Santa Cruz 1+ goals

72%

Santa Cruz 2+ goals

37%

Santa Cruz 3+ goals

14%

Ferroviario 1+ goals

58%

Ferroviario 2+ goals

21%

Ferroviario 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Santa Cruz (draw refunded)

65%

Ferroviario (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Cruz at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 27 matches

Ferroviario away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.23 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Cruz attack 1.33 + Ferroviario defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.28

Ferroviario attack 1.06 + Santa Cruz defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Santa Cruz scores more

46%

level

29%

Ferroviario scores more

25%

Santa Cruz at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Santa Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

Thiaguinho

69'

Thiaguinho

71'

K. Rivas

87'

Geovany Soares

Santa

Ferroviario

Manager: Marcelo Cabo

Manager: Tiago Zorro