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Santa Cruz vs El Palmar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Santa Cruz
Santa Cruz
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
El Palmar
El Palmar
11/1/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 9Estadio Municipal de Llano de Brujas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Santa Cruz39%
×Draw28%
El Palmar33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Cruz
1.23
El Palmar
1.10

Santa Cruz creates 12% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 111 away

creates per match

Santa Cruz
0.88
El Palmar
1.03

allows per match

Santa Cruz
1.18
El Palmar
1.58

finishing

Santa Cruz+0.00on par
El Palmar+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Cruz ↓

El Palmar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Santa Cruz or draw
67%
Santa Cruz or El Palmar
72%
Draw or El Palmar
61%

Winning margin

Santa Cruz wins by 2+
17%
El Palmar wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Santa Cruz 1+ goals
71%
Santa Cruz 2+ goals
35%
Santa Cruz 3+ goals
13%
El Palmar 1+ goals
67%
El Palmar 2+ goals
30%
El Palmar 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Santa Cruz (draw refunded)
54%
El Palmar (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Cruz at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

El Palmar away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.58 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Cruz attack 0.88 + El Palmar defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.23

El Palmar attack 1.03 + Santa Cruz defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Santa Cruz scores more
39%
level
28%
El Palmar scores more
33%

Santa Cruz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Santa Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Santa Cruz 1–2 El Palmar

El Palmar beat Santa Cruz 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 1, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Llano de Brujas in Llano de Brujas.